- The Israeli military is preparing a major ground offensive in the Gaza Strip.
- General Yaniv Asor has drawn up a plan involving a phased advance and the displacement of the civilian population.
- Military authorities are considering a resumption of fighting after the Israeli election on 27 October.
Military preparations ahead of a new offensive
The Israeli General Staff believes that a major new ground offensive in the Gaza Strip is becoming difficult to avoid. According to security assessments, the Islamist movement is taking advantage of the current period to rebuild its military capabilities and offensive infrastructure. In response to this situation, the Israeli military’s Southern Command has been instructed to prepare for a large-scale operation mobilizing several divisions simultaneously. This plan to resume fighting, initially presented by General Yaniv Asor, focuses on Gaza City, where key commanders and security forces of the armed group are believed to still be present. The project outlines a phased military advance, alongside an organized displacement of the civilian population to new secure humanitarian zones.
The failure of diplomacy and a strategic timeline
This military planning follows the lack of tangible results in indirect diplomatic negotiations, which aimed at the disarmament of the group and a US-backed transition of governance. Israeli security services are also observing signs of renewed hostile activity, notably the use of suspicious kites at the border, as well as attempts to rearm via humanitarian aid. Although targeted strikes have intensified in recent weeks, the military believes that this status quo cannot continue indefinitely without threatening national security. However, the launch of this major offensive is not expected immediately. Military and political officials are reportedly considering launching the assault after the Israeli general election scheduled for 27 October, as well as after the US midterm elections, in order to secure the political and diplomatic environment.